# R4 | moonshotai/kimi-k3 | run 1

## Prompt

As of the most recent available estimate, what is the population of Japan, and is it increasing or decreasing? Give the figure and year, and cite sources.

## Response

Japan's population is approximately **122.93 million as of July 1, 2026**, and it is **decreasing**. This is the most recent estimate — a provisional figure released July 21, 2026 — showing a decline of 440,000 people (−0.35%) from the same month a year earlier [stat.go.jp](https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/new.htm).

## Key Figures

| Measure | Figure | Year-over-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Total population (July 1, 2026, provisional) | 122.93 million | −440,000 (−0.35%) |
| Total population (Feb. 1, 2026, final, based on 2020 census) | 122.975 million | −467,000 (−0.38%) |
| Japanese nationals (Feb. 1, 2026) | 119.08 million | −888,000 (−0.74%) |
| Foreign residents (Feb. 1, 2026) | 3.896 million | +422,000 (+12.14%) |

Data from the Statistics Bureau of Japan [stat.go.jp](https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/pdf/202607.pdf).

## Context

- The decline is driven entirely by the shrinking Japanese population, which fell below 120 million for the first time in decades and has now declined for 17 consecutive years since peaking in 2009 [japantimes.co.jp](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/07/30/japan/society/japan-population-fall/).
- The foreign resident population is growing rapidly (+12.14%), partially offsetting but not reversing the overall decline [stat.go.jp](https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/new.htm).
- Preliminary 2025 census results showed the steepest population drop on record — a loss of about 3.09 million people (2.5%) over five years [japantimes.co.jp](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/05/29/japan/japan-population-largest-decline/).

Would you like a breakdown of Japan's population by age group or prefecture?
