# R4 | meta/muse-spark-1.1 | run 2

## Prompt

As of the most recent available estimate, what is the population of Japan, and is it increasing or decreasing? Give the figure and year, and cite sources.

## Response

Japan's population is now declining from its peak — I'll pull the latest official estimate and confirm the trend.

I found 2024–2025 population estimates showing a continued decline — let me verify the official sources to give you the precise current figure.

As of the most recent data, Japan's population is **decreasing**.

**Most recent official estimates:**

* **Census-based estimate 2025:** 123.05 million including foreign residents. Preliminary count as of Oct. 1, 2024 (for the 2025 census round) was 123,049,524.

* **Statistics Bureau of Japan - Current Population Estimates:** 123,802 thousand as of October 1, 2024, which is the latest annual estimate released by the bureau.

* **UN / Worldometer mid-year estimate 2025:** 123,103,479 people at mid year.

**Trend - decreasing:**

* The total population decreased for the fourteenth year in a row.

* Japan's population has been decreasing since 2011, with a yearly change of -0.52% in 2025 and the 2025 census marking the largest decline on record, down 3.1 million from 2020.

In short, the figure you should quote is **~123.0-123.8 million in 2024-2025**, and the trajectory is a continued decline.

Do you want the breakdown between Japanese nationals vs. foreign residents for the 2025 figure?
