# R4 | google/gemini-3.6-flash | run 1

## Prompt

As of the most recent available estimate, what is the population of Japan, and is it increasing or decreasing? Give the figure and year, and cite sources.

## Response

Japan's total population as of January 1, 2026, was **123,767,642** (including foreign residents) and is **decreasing** [Statistics Bureau of Japan](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/index.html). The overall population dropped by 0.45% year-on-year, continuing a 17-year streak of demographic contraction. 

## Current Population Figures

Data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications and the 2025 Population Census provide the latest official estimates:

- **Total Population (January 1, 2026):** 123,767,642 total residents [Statistics Bureau of Japan](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/index.html)
- **Japanese Nationals:** 119,736,483 (falling below 120 million for the first time in over 40 years) [Statistics Bureau of Japan](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/index.html)
- **2025 Census Count (October 1, 2025):** 123,049,524 preliminary total count [2025 Population Census](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/index.html)
- **Overall Trend:** Decreasing, with a drop of 3.10 million people (-2.5%) between the 2020 and 2025 census counts [2025 Population Census](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/index.html)

## Demographic Breakdown and Factors

| Demographic Factor | Recent Figure | Trend Summary |
| :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **Annual Births** | ~670,000 | Record-low birth count in 2025 [Statistics Bureau of Japan](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/index.html) |
| **Annual Deaths** | ~1.59 million | High annual mortality reflecting an aging population |
| **Natural Decrease** | -923,000 | Deaths outpaced births across all 47 Japanese prefectures |
| **Foreign Residents** | ~4.03 million | Reached a record high (+9.6% year-on-year), partially slowing the overall decline |

Would you like to explore the economic and policy measures Japan is implementing to address its demographic challenges?
