# R4 | google/gemini-3.6-flash | run 2

## Prompt

As of the most recent available estimate, what is the population of Japan, and is it increasing or decreasing? Give the figure and year, and cite sources.

## Response

Japan's population is actively decreasing. According to preliminary counts from the 2025 Population Census released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, the country's total population stood at **123.05 million** (123,049,524) as of October 1, 2025, representing a 2.5% decrease compared to 2020 [2025 Census Summary](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/kokusei/index.html). Updated survey figures from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications as of January 1, 2026, estimate the total population (including foreign residents) at approximately **123.8 million**, while the Japanese national population alone fell below 120 million for the first time in four decades to **119.74 million** [Japan Demographic Report](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFxAeHNUDRHCDDjr_nN2p35X5h-YUc9tKOskv65xV5a4sUc6ShYZoUjuTL3Xh6bT4lFbV6odcZSbELhDwYlcKtl93biNobF4fsA7E91EXXhtOIo1ceNsEcvMpZzmdUL1U_u8IwhjIxmmeznN3oPpmF7Y2AChOHcZV372DVQICUXxDO7IjosNo1s-r8lrw==).

## Official Population Figures and Trends

National census and ministry estimates indicate that the pace of Japan's population decline is accelerating [2025 Census Trends](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE5poeaqFuhk3HQExYwCMXGSTSW8yPJ9PXzY2VSWRPNYw6ctRz7sd7AZc5_BBDcBRyUhDaeZ1F0nUqfgPBvq6Xn7g0I-ztzIxXGzbfAUWgNft4sr0rwgwwIWlLw8Tq3sCHqzY_ypJaV). 

| Demographic Metric | Population Figure | Reference Date | Key Observation |
| :--- | :--- | :--- | :--- |
| **Total Census Population** | 123.05 million | October 1, 2025 | Down by 3.10 million (-2.5%) relative to 2020 |
| **Total Resident Estimate** | 123.80 million | January 1, 2026 | Offset slightly by record numbers of foreign residents |
| **Japanese Nationals** | 119.74 million | January 1, 2026 | Decreased by 0.76% in one year; 17th consecutive annual drop |

## Primary Demographic Factors

The ongoing population reduction stems from long-term social and demographic trends:

* **Record-Low Birth Rates:** The total fertility rate dropped to 1.14, with fewer than 670,000 annual live births [Annual Demographic Survey](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFuC1-YW0CuAbGp5--k6FVDP21cTlkvE-k8MP9DV1Uw_vakx3GLqLFhz5t1vvlp-pIaRZwdi5XEzINMv2hsUyeIRcLNmVVPFi_RDH3JGdSRrs86KcnX5SbzDw4ZINThoC-desbaGMkiSDiY_g==).
* **Aging Demographics:** The median age in Japan has reached approximately 49.9 years, making it the second-oldest population globally behind Monaco [Japan Demographic Report](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFxAeHNUDRHCDDjr_nN2p35X5h-YUc9tKOskv65xV5a4sUc6ShYZoUjuTL3Xh6bT4lFbV6odcZSbELhDwYlcKtl93biNobF4fsA7E91EXXhtOIo1ceNsEcvMpZzmdUL1U_u8IwhjIxmmeznN3oPpmF7Y2AChOHcZV372DVQICUXxDO7IjosNo1s-r8lrw==).
* **Regional Depopulation:** Population declines occurred in over 90% of Japanese municipalities, with localized gains limited almost exclusively to the Tokyo metropolitan area and Okinawa [2025 Census Trends](https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE5poeaqFuhk3HQExYwCMXGSTSW8yPJ9PXzY2VSWRPNYw6ctRz7sd7AZc5_BBDcBRyUhDaeZ1F0nUqfgPBvq6Xn7g0I-ztzIxXGzbfAUWgNft4sr0rwgwwIWlLw8Tq3sCHqzY_ypJaV).

Would you like to examine the policy measures and economic impacts related to Japan's shrinking workforce?
