# R4 | meta/muse-spark-1.1 | run 1

## Prompt

As of the most recent available estimate, what is the population of Japan, and is it increasing or decreasing? Give the figure and year, and cite sources.

## Response

Japan's latest population estimate is in — I'll pull the current figure, year, and trend with sources.

As of the most recent available estimates, Japan's population is **decreasing**.

## Current figure

* **Official estimate:** **123,802,000** (123,802 thousand) as of **October 1, 2024** [Statistics Bureau Japan](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jinsui/2024np/index.html).
* **Most recent preliminary census:** **123.05 million** (123,049,524) as of **October 1, 2025**, released May 29, 2026 [People's Daily Report](http://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0529/c90000-20462093.html).
* **UN mid-year estimate for 2025 used internationally:** **123,103,479** people at mid-year [Worldometer Japan Data](http://srv1.worldometers.info/world-population/japan-population/).

The 2025 figure is down by a record 3.1 million from 2020 [People's Daily Report](http://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0529/c90000-20462093.html).

## Trend: Decreasing

Japan's population has been in long-term decline:

* The total population was 123,802 thousand, a decrease of 550 thousand compared with the previous year [Statistics Bureau Japan](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jinsui/2024np/index.html).
* The total population decreased for the fourteenth year in a row [Statistics Bureau Japan](https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/jinsui/2024np/index.html).
* The 2025 yearly change was **-0.52 %** [Worldometer Japan Data](http://srv1.worldometers.info/world-population/japan-population/), and the 2025 census marks the largest decline on record [People's Daily Report](http://en.people.cn/n3/2026/0529/c90000-20462093.html).

The decline is driven by natural decrease — deaths outnumbering births — and an aging population.

Would you like the breakdown by Japanese nationals vs. foreign residents for 2024-2025 as well?
