# R4 | moonshotai/kimi-k3 | run 2

## Prompt

As of the most recent available estimate, what is the population of Japan, and is it increasing or decreasing? Give the figure and year, and cite sources.

## Response

Japan's population is approximately **122.93 million** as of **July 1, 2026**, and it is **decreasing** — down roughly 440,000 people (0.35%) from the same month a year earlier. This continues a decline that has now lasted well over a decade.

## Details

| Estimate | Population | Year-over-year change |
|---|---|---|
| July 1, 2026 (provisional) | 122.93 million | −440,000 (−0.35%) |
| June 1, 2026 (provisional) | 122.85 million | −530,000 (−0.43%) |
| Feb. 1, 2026 (final, based on 2020 Census) | 122.975 million | −467,000 (−0.38%) |

The figures come from the Statistics Bureau of Japan's monthly population estimates, with the July 2026 report released on July 21, 2026 [stat.go.jp](https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/new.htm), [stat.go.jp PDF](https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/pdf/202607.pdf).

## Key demographic breakdown (February 2026 final estimates)

- **Under 15:** 13.35 million, down 356,000 (−2.60%)
- **Ages 15–64 (working age):** 73.43 million, down 121,000 (−0.16%)
- **Ages 65+:** 36.20 million, up slightly; the **75+** group alone grew 480,000 (+2.29%) to 21.44 million
- **Japanese nationals:** 119.08 million, down 888,000 (−0.74%)
- **Foreign residents:** 3.90 million, up 422,000 (+12.14%) [stat.go.jp](https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/new.htm)

The native Japanese population has been shrinking for 17 consecutive years since peaking in 2009, and in 2026 it fell below 120 million for the first time in 42 years [japantimes.co.jp](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/07/30/japan/society/japan-population-fall/). Growth in the foreign resident population partially offsets, but does not reverse, the overall decline.

Would you like a breakdown of Japan's population trends by prefecture or age group?
