# R4 | x-ai/grok-4.3 | run 2

## Prompt

As of the most recent available estimate, what is the population of Japan, and is it increasing or decreasing? Give the figure and year, and cite sources.

## Response

Japan's population stood at 123,049,524 as of the October 1, 2025 census (the most recent official count available) and continues to decline.[[1]](https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h02799/)

## Latest Official Figure
- **October 1, 2025 census**: 123,049,524 residents (Japanese and non-Japanese).[[1]](https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-data/h02799/)
- This marked a drop of 3.1 million from the 2020 census and the largest five-year decline on record.[[2]](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/29/world/asia/japan-census-population-decline.html)

## Current Estimates and Trend
Live models place the mid-2026 population near 122.4 million, with an annual decline rate of about 0.5%.[[3]](https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/japan-population/)

Japan's population has fallen every year since peaking around 128.5 million in 2010, driven by low birth rates and limited net immigration.[[4]](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Japan)

**Is it increasing or decreasing?** Decreasing, with no reversal in sight.
