# R4 | z-ai/glm-5.2 | run 1

## Prompt

As of the most recent available estimate, what is the population of Japan, and is it increasing or decreasing? Give the figure and year, and cite sources.

## Response

As of the most recent provisional estimate, Japan's total population stands at approximately 122.93 million as of July 1, 2026, and it is decreasing. The population declined by about 440,000 people (0.35%) compared to the same month the previous year [stat.go.jp](https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/new.htm).

This figure includes both Japanese nationals and foreign residents. Separately, the population of Japanese nationals alone fell below 120 million for the first time in decades, standing at 119.74 million as of January 1, 2026, down 0.76% year-on-year [japantimes.co.jp](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/07/30/japan/society/japan-population-fall/).

## Key Figures

| Date | Total Population | Japanese Population | Foreign Population | Trend |
|------|-----------------|---------------------|--------------------|-------|
| July 1, 2026 (Provisional) | ~122.93 million | — | — | Decreasing (▲0.35% YoY) |
| February 1, 2026 (Final) | ~122.98 million | ~119.08 million | ~3.90 million | Decreasing (▲0.38% YoY) |

**Breakdown as of February 1, 2026 (final estimates based on the 2020 Census):**
- Under 15: 13.35 million (down 2.60% YoY)
- 15–64: 73.43 million (down 0.16% YoY)
- 65 and over: 36.20 million (up 0.03% YoY), including 21.44 million aged 75+ (up 2.29% YoY)
- Japanese nationals: 119.08 million (down 0.74% YoY)
- Foreign residents: 3.90 million (up 12.14% YoY) [stat.go.jp](https://www.stat.go.jp/data/jinsui/pdf/202607.pdf)

## Context

Japan's population has been shrinking for three consecutive national censuses, with the 2025 census showing the steepest decline on record—a drop of roughly 3.09 million people (2.5%) from the 2020 census, bringing the total to 123.05 million [japantimes.co.jp](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2026/05/29/japan/japan-population-largest-decline/). The aging trend continues, with the 75-and-over group growing while the under-15 population contracts.

Would you like a breakdown of regional population trends or projections for Japan's future population?
